No Future Part Three: Escape From No Future

No Future Part Three: Escape

Dirk | Political Junkie
4 Mar 2011

Yep you guessed it … your friend and humble narrator is still in the mood to leave 2012 behind—and take magic eight ball to the post President Obama Democrats and Republicans and the election of 2016.

Here’s How I Summed Up the Likely Contenders the Other Day:

“Lets starts with the democrats and by eliminating anyone—well the one person—who it absolutely won’t be … Hillary Clinton. Now you may think that goes back to my before the 2008 primaries hostility to Secretary Clinton is coloring that statement but you’d be wrong. I’m a foreign policy nerd and while she hasn’t exactly been a grand strategist (which is the national security advisor’s responsibility anyway) she’s mostly pleasantly surprised me. No, she won’t be the democratic nominee in 2016 (no matter what you’ve heard) because we’re talking about six-seven years from now and Hillary is currently 63—which is to say 70.

Not indulging in ageism or anything, just recognizing that the presidency shifting forward a generation and then shifting back would be a complete historical anomaly (and if you’re about to counter with Lyndon Johnson, please think that through). And it’s worth noting that the main thing Clinton had going for her back in 2007 was an aura of inevitability-invincibility that’s frankly gone. Basically every democrat who can run will run and they will almost all be post boomers and that does not increase her chances.

So who may run, may meaning they might but I can’t say I think much of their chances: Well, Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick might just give it a go, Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley may as well … and despite being fucking loathed by virtually every rank and file activist minded democrat former Senator Evan Bayh probably won’t but may. Vice President Joe Biden might; but he’d run into many of the same problems Clinton would. That leaves former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who though he’s also 63 probably could and probably should to murk up the cycle’s not looking like its gonna be great for Democrats optics; New York’s junior Senator Kristin Gillibrand—who may not but who’s making moves like she’s considering it; Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer also may and should and former Virginia Governor and current Senator Mark Warner will and despite not exactly being Mr. excitement may just get the nod.

Now let’s take a look at the GOP side of 2016—in a way that totally and complete ignores candidates likely to be effected and or influenced by lunar cycles. We might see South Dakota Senator John Thune in the race; the current Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie (whom Cory Booker will hopefully have banished to the Black Pit of Mordor by the then) will also make his run; though he should in no way shape nor form return to these United States to mount a campaign for anything other than maybe a decent hamburger in 2012 … former Utah Governor and soon to be ex US Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman will also throw his hat in; as will newly elected Wyoming Governor Matt Mead; so will either (but not both) Republican golden boy and junior Senator from Florida Marco Rubio or Governor of Nevada Brian Sandoval; all of whom maybe doomed to watch their dreams burn to cinder and float away on a breeze since South Carolina’s Nikki Haley will certainly hop into the race as well.”

So here’s today’s question: How da ya think it’ll all turn out? For me the answer’s not as complicated as it might seem from this distance – assuming no John Edwards style scandal screw-ups and or drastic full fucking financial meltdown shifts in what America cares about—because we know so much about how both party’s tend to play the primary nominating contest game that Lawrence O’Donnell was able to write a pretty darn good approximation of 2008 in 2006. That’s sad and depressing and all, but that’s how it goes.

So who on the Dem side doesn’t have a rainbow’s chance in Hell? Deval doesn’t because he’s not Obama and fair or not that’s how he’ll be judged (though one day, knock on wood, Cory Booker may benefit from the comparison). Martin O’Malley doesn’t. He was the basis for the Mayor on The Wire … The. End. Evan Bayh doesn’t, though inexplicably popular with the centrist political punditry—the professional left and the actual left hate both his haircut and his fucking guts; he’s also ridiculously boring, as in a walking snooze button even by C-SPAN standards so. Joe Biden is wild card I admit, but you can’t say much for his chances (he’s 68, do the math). It’s conceivable that Richardson might pull it out, but there are scandal like issues around him and 2008 didn’t show him to be campaigner but that could change and he might benefit from a lot of post Obama make history excitement in the Latino community.

But then Sen Kristen Gillibrand could get something like the same boost from dem women.

Webb, Warner and Warner

In the end however, it seems to me that the contest is likely to come down to either Governor Schweitzer or Senator Warner. Why? Well, for one thing the field is in no way as strong as it might appear at a quick glance—it is, in fact decidedly mediocre. Richardson has arguably the best chops and most impressive resume of the lot but he has issues that kept in out of Obama’s cabinet and others that boiled under his 2007 primary campaign. And there’s were he’ll be 70 and simply may not run. Biden who’ll be 75 probably won’t. Gillibrand has a fair to good shot, but it’s difficult to fully suss because she’s just starting to poke her head up. That said, it seems fair to guess that unless she’s a disaster as a national campaigner, she could wind up as either Schweitzer or Warner’s running mate. So they’re the best bets because they’re what democratic primary voters have historically liked. Face it, Obama was a historical anomaly; the last time democratic primary voters went for a scrappy insurgent idealist was 1968.

You also can’t say easily identify who that charismatic upstart would be in the pack above … so it’s going to come down to one of the two qualified white guys who can raise the most money. Given democrats odd aversion to political charisma, my chip’s going on Warner, though I’ll be rooting for Gov. Schweitzer. So at the end of day the 2016 Democratic ticket could be Warner + Schweitzer, Schweitzer + Warner, Warner + Gillibrand or ideally … as it would probably represent The Dem’s best shot: Schweitzer + Gillibrand.

You’re probably wondering by now if there’s anyone who has a better chance of finding unicorn shit on their lawn than claiming the republican nomination in 2016? Well, there’s Kenneth the Page himself: Bobby Jindal—or any other republican reject from the first two years of the Obama presidency with the possible exception of Senator Thune. Who we’re going to deal with first because he’s basically a wild card. By which I mean to say that if he does a good job campaigning for house hopefuls and the like, the VP buzz is good and he successfully pretends to have sat out 2012 because it was Mitt Romney’s “turn” he’ll almost certainly be the nominee in 2016. What? That’s supposedly how the GOP works.

Sen. John Thune, R-S.D.

Now as for the rest of the pack … I think it’s a safe bet to count Chris Christie out as he’ll be coming off what’s likely to have been a rather embarrassing and well-publicized defeat at the hands of Barack Obama 2.0 and frankly a little of him goes a long way (no, really, dig the polling). Mitch Daniels will make a go of it but he simply doesn’t have the wattage to win a media war. Matt Mead will likely have the same problem and so will Mike Pence. That leads us to Marco Rubio, who will have to overcome the simple fact that he’s clearly of Cuban descent in a party that has issues with non-whites. The party may drop that act after a disappointing 2012 defeat but then again they might not. Of course he has other problems like how Americans generally prefer to elect ex governors president and both of the remaining names on my list belong to governors. First there’s Jon Huntsman who is in many ways the most likely 2016 GOP nominee. You see beyond the telegenic fireworks the key to guy he’ll be replacing appeal’s is how he always just seems like the grown-up in a room. I suspect that’s because Americans don’t exactly trust government at the moment. So if the nation – as it was back in 2000 – is pretty happy but wants to give the other party a chance … Obama’s ex-Ambassador to China is going to be pretty difficult to paint as a standard issue RWNJ (right wing nut job). Also, Huntsman’s pretty darn white and the country just may be in the “mood” for that again. Of course he’s also a Mormon and the right may be weird about that.

Ambassador Jon Huntsman

That leaves us with South Carolina’s Nikki Haley. Who will, let’s just be honest, may have as much working against her as for her. There’s how South Carolina is the Illinois of the South (i.e. political scandal central). There’s how she’ll be tied to and compared to Sarah Palin until she isn’t “tied” to her anymore. She’s also non-white in a decidedly and increasing vehemently white political party. On the other hand, the GOP has a way of flat out ignoring scandal and she’s non-white in the way Harold Ford was black until that Playboy Mansion ad ran (seriously, something like 60% of Tennessee didn’t know until the MSM told them by crying racism post ad). Her connection to Palin is tricky but it could work both ways. I mean, Haley isn’t going to be stumped by questions about her reading habits anytime soon, so she’ll get a lot of credit for being even more impressive than she is. It’s just too difficult to say how things with her will play out on the ground with republicans but the national political media’s likely reaction to a Haley run is sadly easy to predict.

SC Rep. Nikki Haley of Lexington

They’re going to love her. They’re going to defend her and they’re going go out of their way to destroy any opponent of hers who even kinda steps out of line. Wanna know how I know? Three words. 2010, slut, and shaming. As you may recall 2010 was a rampant slut shaming of lady politician’s kinda year. It happened at least three times in a made national news type way. Once to Haley. Once to Krystal Ball. And once to Christine O’Donnell. Anyone remember how the liberal media responded? They defended Haley. They thought Ball should’ve known better and was wrong to vociferously point out that what happened to her was slut shaming. And they defended O’Donnell. See a pattern? I kinda see a pattern.

That doesn’t mean Haley can or will win the nomination. But that’s where my bet would go. So at the end of day the 2016 Republican ticket could be Thune + Haley, Thune + Huntsman, Huntsman + Haley or Haley + Huntsman. Now call me a pessimist but I just don’t like the look of our odds in a Haley vs. Warner election. Yes Warner will have being insanely popular in Virgina and from Indiana going for him electoral college wise … but the media air war, my god, that’s not a fight he’s going to win against someone like Haley. It’ll be a bit like Obama vs. McCain in reverse. He’ll be compared unfavorably to President Obama. He’ll sound like a pale shadow standing next to Bill Clinton and I can already see the blog posts and editorials musing if maybe “good true progressives” shouldn’t just wait for Cory Booker to make a go of it. Sure he’ll have plenty of support, but it will be John Kerry support, Al Gore support … and well, we all remember how that fucking worked out. Right?

Warner